Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016
Leicester 3–1 Everton: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Everton 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 10 of 10. Leicester made the better chances: 4.4 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 3 | 4.44 |
 Everton | 1 | 1.38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Leicester about even · −2 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 10, 0 end level, Everton win 0.
- 1 LEI 3 EVE 1
- 2 LEI 4 EVE 1
- 3 LEI 4 EVE 0
- 4 LEI 5 EVE 0
- 5 LEI 7 EVE 2
- 6 LEI 8 EVE 2
- 7 LEI 8 EVE 2
- 8 LEI 12 EVE 5
- 9 LEI 9 EVE 1
- 10 LEI 10 EVE 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 98%, 2% end level, Everton win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 86.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 7.9% |
| Leicester by 1 | 3.6% |
| Draw | 1.6% |
| Everton by 1 | 0.7% |
| Everton by 2 | 0.2% |
| Everton by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 32 (2 pen) | 3 | 4.44 | −1.44 |
 Everton | 10 | 1 | 1.38 | −0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 32' | Andrew Philip King scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 64' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 68' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 71' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 87' | Kevin Mirallas scored from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +14% LEI |
| 2 | 9' | Andrew Philip King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% EVE |
| 3 | 15' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% LEI |
| 4 | 19' | Tom Cleverley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LEI |
| 5 | 25' | John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% LEI |
| 6 | 32' | Andrew Philip King scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +10% LEI |
| 7 | 45' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% LEI |
| 8 | 57' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 96% · draw 2% · Everton 1%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 98% · draw 2% · Everton 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Everton
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Stoke May 7, 2016 · replay 51% for Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- Sunderland 3–2 Chelsea May 7, 2016 · replay 40% for Sunderland
- West Ham 1–4 Swansea May 7, 2016 · replay 76% for Swansea
- Norwich 0–1 Man United May 7, 2016 · replay 66% for Man United
- Bournemouth 1–1 West Brom May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Southampton May 8, 2016 · replay 23% for Southampton
- Man City 2–2 Arsenal May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- Liverpool 2–0 Watford May 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Liverpool