Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016
West Ham 1–4 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat West Ham 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Swansea win 7 of 10, 1 end level. The chances were close to even (2.8 expected goals to 2.8). An own goal helped West Ham.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 | 2.84 |
 Swansea City | 4 | 2.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Swansea about even · −24 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 2, 1 ends level, Swansea win 7.
- 1 WHU 4 SWA 3
- 2 WHU 4 SWA 2
- 3 WHU 2 SWA 2
- 4 WHU 0 SWA 5
- 5 WHU 1 SWA 5
- 6 WHU 2 SWA 5
- 7 WHU 4 SWA 7
- 8 WHU 1 SWA 3
- 9 WHU 1 SWA 3
- 10 WHU 4 SWA 5
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 18%, 14% end level, Swansea win 69%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 3.8% |
| West Ham by 2 | 4.9% |
| West Ham by 1 | 8.9% |
| Draw | 13.7% |
| Swansea by 1 | 16.7% |
| Swansea by 2 | 17.1% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 35.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 26 | 0 | 2.84 | −2.84 |
 Swansea | 14 | 4 | 2.76 | +1.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Wayne Routledge scored from a shot | 0.65 |
| 30' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 46' | Manuel Lanzini didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 50' | Sung-Yeung Ki scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 67' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 67' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shot | 0.64 |
| 92' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shot | 0.76 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Winston Reid didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SWA |
| 2 | 24' | Wayne Routledge scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +10% SWA |
| 3 | 28' | Angelo Obinze Ogbonna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% SWA |
| 4 | 30' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +9% SWA |
| 5 | 46' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% SWA |
| 6 | 46' | Manuel Lanzini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +8% SWA |
| 7 | 50' | Sung-Yeung Ki scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% SWA |
| 8 | 67' | Own goal by nan, for West HamOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +2% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 21% · draw 18% · Swansea 60%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 18% · draw 14% · Swansea 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · Swansea
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