Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016
Norwich 0–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Norwich 1–0, and the replays lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Norwich, 3 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.76 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 1.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Man United lucky · −34 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 2, 3 end level, Man United win 5.
- 1 NOR 2 MUN 1
- 2 NOR 2 MUN 0
- 3 NOR 2 MUN 2
- 4 NOR 0 MUN 0
- 5 NOR 1 MUN 1
- 6 NOR 0 MUN 3
- 7 NOR 2 MUN 4
- 8 NOR 0 MUN 2
- 9 NOR 0 MUN 1
- 10 NOR 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 21%, 28% end level, Man United win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Norwich by 2 | 4.3% |
| Norwich by 1 | 15.1% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Man United by 1 | 25.5% |
| Man United by 2 | 16.0% |
| Man United by 3+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 9 | 0 | 0.76 | −0.76 |
 Man United | 15 | 1 | 1.31 | −0.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 71' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% MUN |
| 2 | 28' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% NOR |
| 3 | 47' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% NOR |
| 4 | 64' | Faustino Marcos Alberto Rojo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% NOR |
| 5 | 68' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% MUN |
| 6 | 71' | The game turned hereJuan Manuel Mata García scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +25% MUN |
| 7 | 73' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% MUN |
| 8 | 79' | Graham Dorrans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 20% · draw 27% · Man United 53%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 21% · draw 28% · Man United 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Man United
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