Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016
Sunderland 3–2 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Chelsea 3–2, but the replays lean toward Chelsea: 4 wins in 10 to Sunderland’s 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 3 | 0.97 |
 Chelsea | 2 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Sunderland very lucky · −60 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 3, 3 end level, Chelsea win 4.
- 1 SUN 1 CHE 0
- 2 SUN 2 CHE 1
- 3 SUN 2 CHE 0
- 4 SUN 1 CHE 1
- 5 SUN 0 CHE 0
- 6 SUN 1 CHE 1
- 7 SUN 0 CHE 3
- 8 SUN 0 CHE 2
- 9 SUN 0 CHE 1
- 10 SUN 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 26%, 28% end level, Chelsea win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 6.4% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 17.4% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 24.3% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 14.1% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 8.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 14 | 3 | 0.97 | +2.03 |
 Chelsea | 9 | 2 | 1.16 | +0.84 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 25' | DeAndre Yedlin didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 40' | Wahbi Khazri scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 47' | Nemanja Matić scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 66' | Fabio Borini scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 69' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +25% CHE |
| 2 | 25' | DeAndre Yedlin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +9% CHE |
| 3 | 40' | Wahbi Khazri scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +31% SUN |
| 4 | 47' | Nemanja Matić scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +20% CHE |
| 5 | 50' | Jan Kirchhoff didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% CHE |
| 6 | 66' | The game turned hereFabio Borini scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +36% SUN |
| 7 | 69' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +32% SUN |
| 8 | 89' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 30% · draw 29% · Chelsea 41%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 26% · draw 28% · Chelsea 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 40% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Stoke May 7, 2016 · replay 51% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 3–1 Everton May 7, 2016 · replay 98% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- West Ham 1–4 Swansea May 7, 2016 · replay 76% for Swansea
- Norwich 0–1 Man United May 7, 2016 · replay 66% for Man United
- Bournemouth 1–1 West Brom May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Southampton May 8, 2016 · replay 23% for Southampton
- Man City 2–2 Arsenal May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- Liverpool 2–0 Watford May 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Liverpool