Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Liverpool 2–0 Watford: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Watford 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 2 | 3.14 |
 Watford | 0 | 1.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Liverpool about even · −9 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 9, 1 ends level, Watford win 0.
- 1 LIV 2 WAT 1
- 2 LIV 4 WAT 2
- 3 LIV 5 WAT 3
- 4 LIV 5 WAT 2
- 5 LIV 3 WAT 0
- 6 LIV 5 WAT 1
- 7 LIV 5 WAT 0
- 8 LIV 6 WAT 0
- 9 LIV 9 WAT 2
- 10 LIV 2 WAT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 87%, 8% end level, Watford win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 57.6% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 16.5% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 13.3% |
| Draw | 8.2% |
| Watford by 1 | 2.9% |
| Watford by 2 | 1.3% |
| Watford by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 19 | 2 | 3.14 | −1.14 |
 Watford | 14 | 0 | 1.25 | −1.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Joe Allen scored from a shot | 0.60 |
| 47' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 75' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 81' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 86' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 91' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Almen Abdi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% LIV |
| 2 | 29' | Sebastian Prödl didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LIV |
| 3 | 34' | Joe Allen scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +11% LIV |
| 4 | 36' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% LIV |
| 5 | 47' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +6% WAT |
| 6 | 54' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% LIV |
| 7 | 67' | Almen Abdi didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +3% LIV |
| 8 | 75' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +6% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 91% · draw 6% · Watford 3%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 87% · draw 8% · Watford 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · Watford
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