Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016
Crystal Palace 2–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Stoke 2–1, but the replays call it even: Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Stoke 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 1.24 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 1.20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Crystal Palace lucky · −49 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 4, 3 end level, Stoke win 3.
- 1 CRY 1 STK 0
- 2 CRY 2 STK 1
- 3 CRY 2 STK 0
- 4 CRY 4 STK 1
- 5 CRY 1 STK 1
- 6 CRY 1 STK 1
- 7 CRY 0 STK 0
- 8 CRY 1 STK 3
- 9 CRY 0 STK 1
- 10 CRY 1 STK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 37%, 29% end level, Stoke win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 5.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 10.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 21.1% |
| Draw | 28.8% |
| Stoke by 1 | 20.1% |
| Stoke by 2 | 9.5% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 4.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 17 | 2 | 1.24 | +0.76 |
 Stoke | 12 | 1 | 1.20 | −0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Charlie Adam scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 46' | Dwight Gayle scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 67' | Dwight Gayle scored from a free kick | 0.02 |
| 85' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% CRY |
| 2 | 25' | Charlie Adam scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +21% STK |
| 3 | 46' | The game turned hereDwight Gayle scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +23% CRY |
| 4 | 56' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% STK |
| 5 | 57' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% STK |
| 6 | 67' | Dwight Gayle scored from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance | +35% CRY |
| 7 | 84' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% CRY |
| 8 | 85' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +14% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 38% · draw 28% · Stoke 34%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 37% · draw 29% · Stoke 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Leicester 3–1 Everton May 7, 2016 · replay 98% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- Sunderland 3–2 Chelsea May 7, 2016 · replay 40% for Sunderland
- West Ham 1–4 Swansea May 7, 2016 · replay 76% for Swansea
- Norwich 0–1 Man United May 7, 2016 · replay 66% for Man United
- Bournemouth 1–1 West Brom May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Southampton May 8, 2016 · replay 23% for Southampton
- Man City 2–2 Arsenal May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- Liverpool 2–0 Watford May 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Liverpool