Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Newcastle 5–1 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Tottenham 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 5 | 2.08 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Newcastle about even · −14 Tottenham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 8, 1 ends level, Tottenham win 1.
- 1 NEW 4 TOT 3
- 2 NEW 1 TOT 0
- 3 NEW 3 TOT 1
- 4 NEW 3 TOT 1
- 5 NEW 3 TOT 0
- 6 NEW 3 TOT 0
- 7 NEW 6 TOT 2
- 8 NEW 6 TOT 1
- 9 NEW 2 TOT 2
- 10 NEW 1 TOT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 79%, 13% end level, Tottenham win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 36.3% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 22.6% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 12.8% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 5.7% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 1.7% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 20 (1 pen) | 5 | 2.08 | +2.92 |
 Tottenham | 17 | 1 | 0.87 | +0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 38' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 59' | Erik Lamela scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 72' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 83' | Rolando Aarons scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 85' | Daryl Janmaat scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% TOT |
| 2 | 9' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% TOT |
| 3 | 18' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +22% NEW |
| 4 | 38' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +11% NEW |
| 5 | 58' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% NEW |
| 6 | 59' | Erik Lamela scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +10% TOT |
| 7 | 64' | Josh Onomah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% NEW |
| 8 | 72' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 89% · draw 8% · Tottenham 3%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 79% · draw 13% · Tottenham 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Arsenal 4–0 Aston Villa May 15, 2016 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- West Brom 1–1 Liverpool May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 4–1 Crystal Palace May 15, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Everton 3–0 Norwich May 15, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Swansea 1–1 Man City May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Stoke 2–1 West Ham May 15, 2016 · replay 8% for Stoke
- Chelsea 1–1 Leicester May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Watford 2–2 Sunderland May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Man United 3–1 Bournemouth May 17, 2016 · replay 81% for Man United