Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Swansea 1–1 Man City: who deserved to win?
Swansea and Man City drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Swansea win 0 of 10, Man City 9, and 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 0.18 |
 Manchester City | 1 | 2.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Swansea lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 0, 1 ends level, Man City win 9.
- 1 SWA 1 MCI 1
- 2 SWA 0 MCI 5
- 3 SWA 0 MCI 4
- 4 SWA 0 MCI 3
- 5 SWA 0 MCI 3
- 6 SWA 0 MCI 2
- 7 SWA 0 MCI 2
- 8 SWA 0 MCI 2
- 9 SWA 0 MCI 1
- 10 SWA 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 2%, 9% end level, Man City win 89%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Swansea by 2 | 0.1% |
| Swansea by 1 | 1.6% |
| Draw | 9.0% |
| Man City by 1 | 19.4% |
| Man City by 2 | 24.9% |
| Man City by 3+ | 45.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.82 |
 Man City | 18 | 1 | 2.49 | −1.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 4' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 4' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.66 |
| 45' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +11% SWA |
| 2 | 4' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +8% SWA |
| 3 | 4' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +9% MCI |
| 4 | 26' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% SWA |
| 5 | 45' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +31% SWA |
| 6 | 46' | Eliaquim Mangala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% SWA |
| 7 | 62' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 8 | 71' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 1% · draw 6% · Man City 92%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 2% · draw 9% · Man City 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Man City
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