Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Stoke 2–1 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat West Ham 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: West Ham win 9 of 10, Stoke only 0, 1 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 2 | 0.43 |
 West Ham United | 1 | 2.74 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +92 Stoke very lucky · −92 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 0, 1 ends level, West Ham win 9.
- 1 STK 2 WHU 2
- 2 STK 0 WHU 6
- 3 STK 0 WHU 5
- 4 STK 0 WHU 4
- 5 STK 1 WHU 4
- 6 STK 0 WHU 3
- 7 STK 0 WHU 2
- 8 STK 0 WHU 2
- 9 STK 0 WHU 1
- 10 STK 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 3%, 10% end level, West Ham win 87%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.5% |
| Stoke by 1 | 2.5% |
| Draw | 9.5% |
| West Ham by 1 | 17.2% |
| West Ham by 2 | 21.4% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 48.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 8 | 2 | 0.43 | +1.57 |
 West Ham | 23 | 1 | 2.74 | −1.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 50' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 54' | Gilbert Gianelli Imbula Wanga scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 75' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 87' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Michail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +25% WHU |
| 2 | 50' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +8% STK |
| 3 | 54' | The game turned hereGilbert Gianelli Imbula Wanga scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +32% STK |
| 4 | 69' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +12% STK |
| 5 | 75' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +11% STK |
| 6 | 75' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +14% STK |
| 7 | 77' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +13% STK |
| 8 | 87' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +43% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 3% · draw 10% · West Ham 87%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 3% · draw 10% · West Ham 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 8% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · West Ham
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Arsenal 4–0 Aston Villa May 15, 2016 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- West Brom 1–1 Liverpool May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 4–1 Crystal Palace May 15, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Everton 3–0 Norwich May 15, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Swansea 1–1 Man City May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Chelsea 1–1 Leicester May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Watford 2–2 Sunderland May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Newcastle 5–1 Tottenham May 15, 2016 · replay 86% for Newcastle
- Man United 3–1 Bournemouth May 17, 2016 · replay 81% for Man United