Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
West Brom 1–1 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
West Brom and Liverpool drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Brom win 7 of 10, Liverpool 1, and 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 1.61 |
 Liverpool | 1 | 0.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −28 West Brom unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 7, 2 end level, Liverpool win 1.
- 1 WBA 1 LIV 0
- 2 WBA 2 LIV 1
- 3 WBA 1 LIV 0
- 4 WBA 3 LIV 1
- 5 WBA 2 LIV 0
- 6 WBA 3 LIV 0
- 7 WBA 4 LIV 0
- 8 WBA 0 LIV 0
- 9 WBA 0 LIV 0
- 10 WBA 0 LIV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 66%, 24% end level, Liverpool win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 15.9% |
| West Brom by 2 | 21.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 28.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 8.3% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 1.7% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 13 | 1 | 1.61 | −0.61 |
 Liverpool | 7 | 1 | 0.53 | +0.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 22' | Jordon Ibe scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 81' | Tyler Roberts didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +20% WBA |
| 2 | 22' | Jordon Ibe scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +19% LIV |
| 3 | 45' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WBA |
| 4 | 46' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% LIV |
| 5 | 60' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% LIV |
| 6 | 65' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% LIV |
| 7 | 66' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +9% LIV |
| 8 | 81' | Tyler Roberts didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +27% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 68% · draw 23% · Liverpool 9%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 66% · draw 24% · Liverpool 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Liverpool
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