Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 17, 2016
Man United 3–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Bournemouth 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Bournemouth.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 | 1.55 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Man United about even · −19 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 7, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 1.
- 1 MUN 1 BOU 0
- 2 MUN 2 BOU 1
- 3 MUN 3 BOU 1
- 4 MUN 2 BOU 0
- 5 MUN 2 BOU 0
- 6 MUN 3 BOU 0
- 7 MUN 4 BOU 0
- 8 MUN 1 BOU 1
- 9 MUN 0 BOU 0
- 10 MUN 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 71%, 19% end level, Bournemouth win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 23.2% |
| Man United by 2 | 22.2% |
| Man United by 1 | 25.7% |
| Draw | 19.1% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 7.6% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 1.6% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 12 | 3 | 1.55 | +1.45 |
 Bournemouth | 7 | 0 | 0.65 | −0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 73' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 86' | Ashley Young scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Steve Cook didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MUN |
| 2 | 36' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% MUN |
| 3 | 42' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +14% MUN |
| 4 | 46' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MUN |
| 5 | 47' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MUN |
| 6 | 47' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MUN |
| 7 | 58' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% BOU |
| 8 | 73' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +7% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 87% · draw 10% · Bournemouth 3%
- Final margin
- Man United by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 71% · draw 19% · Bournemouth 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Arsenal 4–0 Aston Villa May 15, 2016 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- West Brom 1–1 Liverpool May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 4–1 Crystal Palace May 15, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Everton 3–0 Norwich May 15, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Swansea 1–1 Man City May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Stoke 2–1 West Ham May 15, 2016 · replay 8% for Stoke
- Chelsea 1–1 Leicester May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Watford 2–2 Sunderland May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Newcastle 5–1 Tottenham May 15, 2016 · replay 86% for Newcastle