Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Everton 3–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Norwich 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Everton win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Everton made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 3 | 2.27 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.74 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Everton about even · −10 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 8, 1 ends level, Norwich win 1.
- 1 EVE 2 NOR 1
- 2 EVE 2 NOR 1
- 3 EVE 4 NOR 2
- 4 EVE 2 NOR 0
- 5 EVE 3 NOR 0
- 6 EVE 4 NOR 0
- 7 EVE 5 NOR 0
- 8 EVE 6 NOR 0
- 9 EVE 1 NOR 1
- 10 EVE 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 84%, 11% end level, Norwich win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 42.8% |
| Everton by 2 | 22.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 11.5% |
| Norwich by 1 | 3.4% |
| Norwich by 2 | 1.0% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 15 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.27 | +0.73 |
 Norwich | 11 | 0 | 0.74 | −0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | James McCarthy scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 43' | Leighton Baines scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 47' | Kevin Mirallas scored from a shot | 0.61 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% NOR |
| 2 | 11' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% NOR |
| 3 | 18' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% EVE |
| 4 | 18' | James McCarthy scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +22% EVE |
| 5 | 30' | Kevin Mirallas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% NOR |
| 6 | 38' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EVE |
| 7 | 40' | Matt Jarvis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% EVE |
| 8 | 43' | Leighton Baines scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 93% · draw 6% · Norwich 2%
- Final margin
- Everton by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 84% · draw 11% · Norwich 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · Norwich
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