Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Chelsea 1–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Leicester drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 4 of 10, Leicester 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.9 expected goals to 1.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 1 | 1.90 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −5 Chelsea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 4, 2 end level, Leicester win 4.
- 1 CHE 1 LEI 0
- 2 CHE 1 LEI 0
- 3 CHE 3 LEI 1
- 4 CHE 4 LEI 1
- 5 CHE 2 LEI 2
- 6 CHE 2 LEI 2
- 7 CHE 0 LEI 3
- 8 CHE 0 LEI 2
- 9 CHE 1 LEI 2
- 10 CHE 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 43%, 23% end level, Leicester win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 10.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 12.9% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 19.6% |
| Draw | 22.7% |
| Leicester by 1 | 16.8% |
| Leicester by 2 | 10.1% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 18 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.90 | −0.90 |
 Leicester | 19 | 1 | 1.73 | −0.73 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 58' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 65' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 81' | Danny Drinkwater scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +14% CHE |
| 2 | 27' | Bertrand Isidore Traoré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% LEI |
| 3 | 32' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% CHE |
| 4 | 58' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +11% CHE |
| 5 | 64' | Tammy Bakumo-Abraham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% LEI |
| 6 | 65' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% CHE |
| 7 | 68' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% CHE |
| 8 | 81' | Danny Drinkwater scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +43% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 41% · draw 25% · Leicester 34%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 43% · draw 23% · Leicester 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Chelsea · Leicester
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Arsenal 4–0 Aston Villa May 15, 2016 · replay 98% for Arsenal
- West Brom 1–1 Liverpool May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 4–1 Crystal Palace May 15, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Everton 3–0 Norwich May 15, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Swansea 1–1 Man City May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Stoke 2–1 West Ham May 15, 2016 · replay 8% for Stoke
- Watford 2–2 Sunderland May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Newcastle 5–1 Tottenham May 15, 2016 · replay 86% for Newcastle
- Man United 3–1 Bournemouth May 17, 2016 · replay 81% for Man United