Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Arsenal 4–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Aston Villa 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 10 of 10. Arsenal made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.3. An own goal helped Arsenal.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 4 | 2.92 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Arsenal about even · −2 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 10, 0 end level, Aston Villa win 0.
- 1 ARS 1 AVL 0
- 2 ARS 2 AVL 0
- 3 ARS 3 AVL 0
- 4 ARS 3 AVL 0
- 5 ARS 5 AVL 1
- 6 ARS 4 AVL 0
- 7 ARS 5 AVL 0
- 8 ARS 5 AVL 0
- 9 ARS 6 AVL 0
- 10 ARS 8 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 96%, 3% end level, Aston Villa win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 70.6% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 16.5% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 9.1% |
| Draw | 3.3% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 0.5% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.1% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 17 | 3 | 2.92 | +0.08 |
 Aston Villa | 6 | 0 | 0.30 | −0.30 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 32' | Jack Wilshere didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 34' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 77' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 79' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 90' | Mohamed Naser Elsayed Elneny didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 91' | Mikel Arteta Amatriain didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +20% ARS |
| 2 | 12' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 21' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% AVL |
| 4 | 32' | Jack Wilshere didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +4% AVL |
| 5 | 34' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +4% AVL |
| 6 | 37' | Scott Sinclair didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ARS |
| 7 | 54' | Kevin Toner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ARS |
| 8 | 77' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 98% · draw 2% · Aston Villa 0%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 96% · draw 3% · Aston Villa 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–1 Liverpool May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 4–1 Crystal Palace May 15, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Everton 3–0 Norwich May 15, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Swansea 1–1 Man City May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Stoke 2–1 West Ham May 15, 2016 · replay 8% for Stoke
- Chelsea 1–1 Leicester May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Watford 2–2 Sunderland May 15, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Newcastle 5–1 Tottenham May 15, 2016 · replay 86% for Newcastle
- Man United 3–1 Bournemouth May 17, 2016 · replay 81% for Man United