Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Southampton 4–1 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Crystal Palace 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Southampton win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 4 | 2.39 |
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Southampton about even · −18 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 8, 1 ends level, Crystal Palace win 1.
- 1 SOU 1 CRY 0
- 2 SOU 2 CRY 1
- 3 SOU 2 CRY 0
- 4 SOU 3 CRY 1
- 5 SOU 3 CRY 0
- 6 SOU 5 CRY 2
- 7 SOU 4 CRY 0
- 8 SOU 5 CRY 0
- 9 SOU 2 CRY 2
- 10 SOU 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 75%, 14% end level, Crystal Palace win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 36.9% |
| Southampton by 2 | 19.3% |
| Southampton by 1 | 19.0% |
| Draw | 13.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 7.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 2.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 19 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.39 | +1.61 |
 Crystal Palace | 16 | 1 | 1.30 | −0.30 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 44' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 60' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 63' | Jason Puncheon scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 74' | Ryan Bertrand scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 86' | Steven Davis scored from a shot | 0.27 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% CRY |
| 2 | 24' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% CRY |
| 3 | 42' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +25% SOU |
| 4 | 44' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +10% SOU |
| 5 | 59' | Sullay Kaikai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SOU |
| 6 | 60' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +9% SOU |
| 7 | 63' | Jason Puncheon scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +9% CRY |
| 8 | 66' | James McArthur didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 85% · draw 10% · Crystal Palace 5%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 75% · draw 14% · Crystal Palace 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Crystal Palace
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