Matchday 38 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Watford 2–2 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Watford and Sunderland drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Watford win 6 of 10, Sunderland 2, and 2 end level. Watford made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 2 | 2.03 |
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −17 Watford about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 6, 2 end level, Sunderland win 2.
- 1 WAT 2 SUN 1
- 2 WAT 2 SUN 1
- 3 WAT 4 SUN 3
- 4 WAT 4 SUN 2
- 5 WAT 3 SUN 1
- 6 WAT 5 SUN 1
- 7 WAT 0 SUN 0
- 8 WAT 1 SUN 1
- 9 WAT 0 SUN 2
- 10 WAT 2 SUN 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 56%, 21% end level, Sunderland win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 14.8% |
| Watford by 2 | 17.3% |
| Watford by 1 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 14.6% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 5.9% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 2.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 22 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.03 | −0.03 |
 Sunderland | 6 | 2 | 1.06 | +0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Jack Rodwell scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 47' | Sebastian Prödl scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 50' | Jeremain Lens scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 60' | Troy Deeney scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Jeremain Lens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% WAT |
| 2 | 38' | Jack Rodwell scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +20% SUN |
| 3 | 47' | Sebastian Prödl scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +30% WAT |
| 4 | 50' | Jeremain Lens scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +22% SUN |
| 5 | 60' | Troy Deeney scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% WAT |
| 6 | 86' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% WAT |
| 7 | 87' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% SUN |
| 8 | 93' | Mario Suárez Mata didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 62% · draw 23% · Sunderland 15%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 56% · draw 21% · Sunderland 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Sunderland
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