Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 25, 2018
Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt: who deserved to win?
Saudi Arabia beat Egypt 2–1, and the replays lean Saudi Arabia’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Egypt, 2 end level. Saudi Arabia made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Saudi Arabia | 2 | 2.55 |
 Egypt | 1 | 0.92 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Saudi Arabia lucky · −26 Egypt
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saudi Arabia win 6, 2 end level, Egypt win 2.
- 1 KSA 1 EGY 0
- 2 KSA 2 EGY 1
- 3 KSA 2 EGY 0
- 4 KSA 3 EGY 1
- 5 KSA 6 EGY 3
- 6 KSA 5 EGY 1
- 7 KSA 0 EGY 0
- 8 KSA 1 EGY 1
- 9 KSA 0 EGY 2
- 10 KSA 1 EGY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Saudi Arabia win 64%, 18% end level, Egypt win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Saudi Arabia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia by 3+ | 22.5% |
| Saudi Arabia by 2 | 19.2% |
| Saudi Arabia by 1 | 22.8% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
| Egypt by 1 | 11.3% |
| Egypt by 2 | 4.2% |
| Egypt by 3+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saudi Arabia | 21 (2 pen) | 2 | 2.55 | −0.55 |
 Egypt | 8 | 1 | 0.92 | +0.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Mohamed Salah scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 23' | Mohamed Salah didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 40' | Fahad Mosaed Al Muwallad Al Harbi didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 50' | Salman Mohammed Al Faraj scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 94' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Mohamed Salah scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +23% EGY |
| 2 | 23' | Mohamed Salah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +7% KSA |
| 3 | 36' | Salman Mohammed Al Faraj didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% EGY |
| 4 | 40' | Fahad Mosaed Al Muwallad Al Harbi didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +23% EGY |
| 5 | 50' | Salman Mohammed Al Faraj scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% KSA |
| 6 | 69' | Mohanad Aseri Abu Radiah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% EGY |
| 7 | 80' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% EGY |
| 8 | 94' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +49% KSA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saudi Arabia 80% · draw 14% · Egypt 6%
- Final margin
- Saudi Arabia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Egypt
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saudi Arabia by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Saudi Arabia 64% · draw 18% · Egypt 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Saudi Arabia win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia