Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 25, 2018
Iran 1–1 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Iran and Portugal drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Iran win 3 of 10, Portugal 5, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.5).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Iran about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iran win 3, 2 end level, Portugal win 5.
- 1 IRN 1 POR 0
- 2 IRN 2 POR 1
- 3 IRN 3 POR 0
- 4 IRN 1 POR 1
- 5 IRN 1 POR 1
- 6 IRN 1 POR 4
- 7 IRN 0 POR 2
- 8 IRN 1 POR 3
- 9 IRN 1 POR 2
- 10 IRN 0 POR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Iran win 31%, 22% end level, Portugal win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iran by 3+ | 5.3% |
| Iran by 2 | 8.8% |
| Iran by 1 | 17.4% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Portugal by 1 | 22.2% |
| Portugal by 2 | 13.8% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 10.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran | 9 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.58 | −0.58 |
 Portugal | 15 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.52 | −0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 44' | Ricardo Andrade Quaresma Bernardo scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 52' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 92' | Karim Ansarifard scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Iran’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | João Mário Naval da Costa Eduardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% IRN |
| 2 | 33' | Saeid Ezatolahi Afagh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% POR |
| 3 | 44' | Ricardo Andrade Quaresma Bernardo scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +30% POR |
| 4 | 52' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% IRN |
| 5 | 57' | Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% POR |
| 6 | 88' | Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% POR |
| 7 | 92' | Karim Ansarifard scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% IRN |
| 8 | 93' | Mehdi Taremi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +12% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iran 37% · draw 31% · Portugal 32%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Iran 31% · draw 22% · Portugal 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia