Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 26, 2018
Iceland 1–2 Croatia: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat Iceland 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Iceland win 6 of 10, Croatia only 2, 2 end level. Iceland made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Iceland | 1 | 2.13 |
 Croatia | 2 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Croatia very lucky · −75 Iceland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iceland win 6, 2 end level, Croatia win 2.
- 1 ISL 1 CRO 0
- 2 ISL 2 CRO 1
- 3 ISL 4 CRO 2
- 4 ISL 3 CRO 1
- 5 ISL 4 CRO 1
- 6 ISL 4 CRO 0
- 7 ISL 2 CRO 2
- 8 ISL 2 CRO 2
- 9 ISL 0 CRO 2
- 10 ISL 0 CRO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Iceland win 64%, 22% end level, Croatia win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Croatia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iceland by 3+ | 18.1% |
| Iceland by 2 | 20.3% |
| Iceland by 1 | 25.6% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Croatia by 1 | 10.0% |
| Croatia by 2 | 2.9% |
| Croatia by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iceland | 17 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.13 | −1.13 |
 Croatia | 13 | 2 | 0.67 | +1.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 52' | Milan Badelj scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 75' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 89' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Iceland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39' | Alfreð Finnbogason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% CRO |
| 2 | 45' | Birkir Bjarnason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% CRO |
| 3 | 52' | Milan Badelj scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +28% CRO |
| 4 | 54' | Sverrir Ingi Ingason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% CRO |
| 5 | 72' | Birkir Bjarnason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +11% CRO |
| 6 | 75' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% ISL |
| 7 | 89' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +43% CRO |
| 8 | 93' | Aron Einar Gunnarsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +9% CRO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iceland 75% · draw 16% · Croatia 8%
- Final margin
- Croatia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iceland by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Iceland 64% · draw 22% · Croatia 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Croatia win 25% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2018 · Iceland · Croatia
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