Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 26, 2018
Nigeria 1–2 Argentina: who deserved to win?
Argentina beat Nigeria 2–1, but the replays lean toward Nigeria: 4 wins in 10 to Argentina’s 3, 3 end level. Nigeria made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Nigeria | 1 | 1.31 |
 Argentina | 2 | 0.85 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Argentina lucky · −56 Nigeria
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nigeria win 4, 3 end level, Argentina win 3.
- 1 NGA 1 ARG 0
- 2 NGA 1 ARG 0
- 3 NGA 2 ARG 0
- 4 NGA 2 ARG 0
- 5 NGA 0 ARG 0
- 6 NGA 0 ARG 0
- 7 NGA 2 ARG 2
- 8 NGA 1 ARG 3
- 9 NGA 0 ARG 1
- 10 NGA 0 ARG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Nigeria win 42%, 29% end level, Argentina win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Argentina by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nigeria by 3+ | 5.7% |
| Nigeria by 2 | 11.7% |
| Nigeria by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 29.4% |
| Argentina by 1 | 18.4% |
| Argentina by 2 | 7.9% |
| Argentina by 3+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nigeria | 9 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.31 | −0.31 |
 Argentina | 8 | 2 | 0.85 | +1.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 50' | Victor Moses scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 85' | Faustino Marcos Alberto Rojo scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Nigeria’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Nicolás Alejandro Tagliafico didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% NGA |
| 2 | 13' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +20% ARG |
| 3 | 47' | Leon Aderemi Balogun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ARG |
| 4 | 50' | Victor Moses scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% NGA |
| 5 | 74' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% ARG |
| 6 | 79' | Gonzalo Gerardo Higuaín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% NGA |
| 7 | 82' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% ARG |
| 8 | 85' | Faustino Marcos Alberto Rojo scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +43% ARG |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nigeria 50% · draw 29% · Argentina 21%
- Final margin
- Argentina by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Argentina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nigeria by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Nigeria 42% · draw 29% · Argentina 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Argentina win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2018 · Nigeria · Argentina
More from matchday 3, 2018
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