Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 27, 2018
Serbia 0–2 Brazil: who deserved to win?
Brazil beat Serbia 2–0, and the replays lean Brazil’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Serbia, 2 end level. Brazil made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Brazil lucky · −29 Serbia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Serbia win 2, 2 end level, Brazil win 6.
- 1 SRB 3 BRA 2
- 2 SRB 1 BRA 0
- 3 SRB 0 BRA 0
- 4 SRB 1 BRA 1
- 5 SRB 1 BRA 4
- 6 SRB 0 BRA 2
- 7 SRB 0 BRA 2
- 8 SRB 2 BRA 4
- 9 SRB 0 BRA 1
- 10 SRB 0 BRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Serbia win 18%, 23% end level, Brazil win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Brazil by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Serbia by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Serbia by 2 | 3.8% |
| Serbia by 1 | 12.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Brazil by 1 | 25.0% |
| Brazil by 2 | 19.7% |
| Brazil by 3+ | 14.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Serbia | 11 | 0 | 0.95 | −0.95 |
 Brazil | 15 | 2 | 1.42 | +0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | José Paulo Bezzera Maciel Júnior scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 67' | Thiago Emiliano da Silva scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Serbia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SRB |
| 2 | 3' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SRB |
| 3 | 28' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% SRB |
| 4 | 33' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BRA |
| 5 | 34' | José Paulo Bezzera Maciel Júnior scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +20% BRA |
| 6 | 60' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +10% BRA |
| 7 | 64' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% BRA |
| 8 | 67' | Thiago Emiliano da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% BRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Serbia 9% · draw 17% · Brazil 74%
- Final margin
- Brazil by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Brazil
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Brazil by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Serbia 18% · draw 23% · Brazil 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Brazil win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia