Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 27, 2018
Mexico 0–3 Sweden: who deserved to win?
Sweden beat Mexico 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sweden win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Sweden made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 1.6. An own goal helped Sweden.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Sweden about even · −20 Mexico
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mexico win 1, 1 ends level, Sweden win 8.
- 1 MEX 3 SWE 2
- 2 MEX 1 SWE 1
- 3 MEX 1 SWE 6
- 4 MEX 1 SWE 5
- 5 MEX 0 SWE 3
- 6 MEX 0 SWE 3
- 7 MEX 2 SWE 4
- 8 MEX 0 SWE 2
- 9 MEX 1 SWE 2
- 10 MEX 1 SWE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Mexico win 13%, 15% end level, Sweden win 73%. The line is what actually happened: Sweden by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mexico by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Mexico by 2 | 3.1% |
| Mexico by 1 | 8.1% |
| Draw | 14.7% |
| Sweden by 1 | 18.8% |
| Sweden by 2 | 18.8% |
| Sweden by 3+ | 35.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico | 22 | 0 | 1.61 | −1.61 |
 Sweden | 15 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.79 | −0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 30' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 49' | Viktor Claesson didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 49' | Ludwig Augustinsson scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 61' | Andreas Granqvist scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 80' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shot | 0.72 |
When it happened
Mexico’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +8% MEX |
| 2 | 17' | Emil Peter Forsberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% MEX |
| 3 | 22' | José Andrés Guardado Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% SWE |
| 4 | 30' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% MEX |
| 5 | 46' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MEX |
| 6 | 49' | Viktor Claesson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +11% MEX |
| 7 | 49' | Ludwig Augustinsson scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +24% SWE |
| 8 | 61' | Andreas Granqvist scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% SWE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mexico 6% · draw 11% · Sweden 83%
- Final margin
- Sweden by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Sweden
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sweden by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Mexico 13% · draw 15% · Sweden 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sweden win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia