Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 25, 2018
Spain 2–2 Morocco: who deserved to win?
Spain and Morocco drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Spain win 7 of 10, Morocco 1, and 2 end level. Spain made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −25 Spain about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Spain win 7, 2 end level, Morocco win 1.
- 1 ESP 1 MAR 0
- 2 ESP 3 MAR 2
- 3 ESP 5 MAR 3
- 4 ESP 3 MAR 1
- 5 ESP 3 MAR 0
- 6 ESP 3 MAR 0
- 7 ESP 5 MAR 0
- 8 ESP 2 MAR 2
- 9 ESP 2 MAR 2
- 10 ESP 1 MAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Spain win 66%, 19% end level, Morocco win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Spain by 3+ | 24.6% |
| Spain by 2 | 19.1% |
| Spain by 1 | 22.0% |
| Draw | 18.5% |
| Morocco by 1 | 10.0% |
| Morocco by 2 | 4.2% |
| Morocco by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 18 | 2 | 2.60 | −0.60 |
 Morocco | 8 | 2 | 1.07 | +0.93 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Khalid Boutaïb scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 18' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 46' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 80' | Youssef En-Nesyri scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 90' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Spain’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Khalid Boutaïb scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +14% MAR |
| 2 | 18' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +16% ESP |
| 3 | 24' | Khalid Boutaïb didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% ESP |
| 4 | 46' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +15% MAR |
| 5 | 61' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% MAR |
| 6 | 80' | Youssef En-Nesyri scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +41% MAR |
| 7 | 86' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +9% MAR |
| 8 | 90' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +29% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Spain 74% · draw 16% · Morocco 10%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Morocco
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Spain 66% · draw 19% · Morocco 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2018
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- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
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- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia