Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 25, 2018
Uruguay 3–0 Russia: who deserved to win?
Uruguay beat Russia 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Uruguay win 10 of 10. Uruguay made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.2. An own goal helped Uruguay.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 3 | 2.48 |
 Russia | 0 | 0.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Uruguay about even · −2 Russia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Uruguay win 10, 0 end level, Russia win 0.
- 1 URU 1 RUS 0
- 2 URU 3 RUS 1
- 3 URU 2 RUS 0
- 4 URU 4 RUS 1
- 5 URU 3 RUS 0
- 6 URU 4 RUS 0
- 7 URU 4 RUS 0
- 8 URU 5 RUS 0
- 9 URU 6 RUS 0
- 10 URU 7 RUS 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Uruguay win 96%, 4% end level, Russia win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Uruguay by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Uruguay by 3+ | 66.3% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 18.2% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 11.2% |
| Draw | 3.7% |
| Russia by 1 | 0.6% |
| Russia by 2 | 0.1% |
| Russia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 16 | 2 | 2.48 | −0.48 |
 Russia | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | −0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a free kick | 0.12 |
| 27' | Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 89' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 94' | Giorgian Daniel De Arrascaeta Benedetti didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Uruguay’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Matías Vecino Falero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% RUS |
| 2 | 9' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a free kickFinishing · 12% chance | +21% URU |
| 3 | 11' | Denis Cheryshev didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% URU |
| 4 | 22' | Diego Sebastián Laxalt Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% RUS |
| 5 | 22' | Own goal by nan, for UruguayOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +15% URU |
| 6 | 27' | Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +2% RUS |
| 7 | 46' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +0% RUS |
| 8 | 73' | Artem Dzyuba didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% URU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Uruguay 98% · draw 2% · Russia 0%
- Final margin
- Uruguay by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Uruguay
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Uruguay by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Uruguay 96% · draw 4% · Russia 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Uruguay win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2018 · Uruguay · Russia
More from matchday 3, 2018
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- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
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