Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 27, 2018
Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica: who deserved to win?
Switzerland and Costa Rica drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Switzerland win 4 of 10, Costa Rica 3, and 3 end level. Costa Rica made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.2. An own goal helped Costa Rica.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 2 | 1.22 |
 Costa Rica | 2 | 1.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Switzerland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Switzerland win 4, 3 end level, Costa Rica win 3.
- 1 SUI 1 CRC 0
- 2 SUI 2 CRC 1
- 3 SUI 4 CRC 2
- 4 SUI 3 CRC 0
- 5 SUI 1 CRC 1
- 6 SUI 1 CRC 1
- 7 SUI 1 CRC 1
- 8 SUI 1 CRC 4
- 9 SUI 0 CRC 1
- 10 SUI 1 CRC 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Switzerland win 36%, 26% end level, Costa Rica win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Switzerland by 3+ | 5.1% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 10.8% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Costa Rica by 1 | 20.6% |
| Costa Rica by 2 | 10.9% |
| Costa Rica by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 13 | 2 | 1.22 | +0.78 |
 Costa Rica | 14 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.58 | −0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Blerim Džemaili scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 55' | Kendall Jamaal Waston Manley scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 87' | Josip Drmic scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 92' | Bryan Ruiz González didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Switzerland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% SUI |
| 2 | 30' | Blerim Džemaili scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +17% SUI |
| 3 | 47' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% SUI |
| 4 | 55' | Kendall Jamaal Waston Manley scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +29% CRC |
| 5 | 77' | Josip Drmic didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +9% CRC |
| 6 | 87' | Josip Drmic scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +42% SUI |
| 7 | 92' | Bryan Ruiz González didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +39% SUI |
| 8 | 92' | Own goal by nan, for Costa RicaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +47% CRC |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Switzerland 28% · draw 27% · Costa Rica 45%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Switzerland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Costa Rica by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Switzerland 36% · draw 26% · Costa Rica 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia