Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 27, 2018
South Korea 2–0 Germany: who deserved to win?
South Korea beat Germany 2–0, but the replays lean toward Germany: 5 wins in 10 to South Korea’s 3, 2 end level. Germany made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 2 | 1.77 |
 Germany | 0 | 2.71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 South Korea very lucky · −61 Germany
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Korea win 3, 2 end level, Germany win 5.
- 1 KOR 3 GER 2
- 2 KOR 3 GER 1
- 3 KOR 4 GER 1
- 4 KOR 1 GER 1
- 5 KOR 2 GER 2
- 6 KOR 3 GER 7
- 7 KOR 0 GER 2
- 8 KOR 0 GER 2
- 9 KOR 4 GER 5
- 10 KOR 2 GER 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
South Korea win 30%, 17% end level, Germany win 52%. The line is what actually happened: South Korea by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Korea by 3+ | 6.8% |
| South Korea by 2 | 9.1% |
| South Korea by 1 | 14.6% |
| Draw | 17.3% |
| Germany by 1 | 18.3% |
| Germany by 2 | 15.8% |
| Germany by 3+ | 18.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 12 | 2 | 1.77 | +0.23 |
 Germany | 29 | 0 | 2.71 | −2.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Mats Hummels didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 91' | Young-Gwon Kim scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 95' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shot | 0.92 |
When it happened
South Korea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Mats Hummels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +10% KOR |
| 2 | 47' | Leon Goretzka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% KOR |
| 3 | 67' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% KOR |
| 4 | 70' | Mario Gómez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% KOR |
| 5 | 81' | Thomas Müller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% KOR |
| 6 | 83' | Julian Brandt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% KOR |
| 7 | 86' | Mats Hummels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +8% KOR |
| 8 | 91' | Young-Gwon Kim scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +26% KOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Korea 40% · draw 22% · Germany 37%
- Final margin
- South Korea by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for South Korea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- South Korea 30% · draw 17% · Germany 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). South Korea win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- Panama 1–2 Tunisia Jun 28, 2018 · replay 86% for Tunisia