Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 28, 2018
Panama 1–2 Tunisia: who deserved to win?
Tunisia beat Panama 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tunisia win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Tunisia made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Panama.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Tunisia about even · −14 Panama
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panama win 1, 1 ends level, Tunisia win 8.
- 1 PAN 2 TUN 1
- 2 PAN 2 TUN 2
- 3 PAN 0 TUN 5
- 4 PAN 0 TUN 4
- 5 PAN 1 TUN 4
- 6 PAN 2 TUN 5
- 7 PAN 1 TUN 3
- 8 PAN 0 TUN 2
- 9 PAN 1 TUN 2
- 10 PAN 1 TUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Panama win 7%, 13% end level, Tunisia win 80%. The line is what actually happened: Tunisia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panama by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Panama by 2 | 1.7% |
| Panama by 1 | 5.3% |
| Draw | 12.6% |
| Tunisia by 1 | 19.9% |
| Tunisia by 2 | 23.4% |
| Tunisia by 3+ | 36.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panama | 9 | 0 | 0.69 | −0.69 |
 Tunisia | 15 | 2 | 2.85 | −0.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Fakhreddine Ben Youssef didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 50' | Fakhreddine Ben Youssef scored from a shot | 0.56 |
| 52' | Fakhreddine Ben Youssef didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 65' | Wahbi Khazri scored from a shot | 0.76 |
When it happened
Panama’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Naïm Sliti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% PAN |
| 2 | 32' | Own goal by nan, for PanamaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% PAN |
| 3 | 38' | Fakhreddine Ben Youssef didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% PAN |
| 4 | 50' | Fakhreddine Ben Youssef scored from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +14% TUN |
| 5 | 52' | Fakhreddine Ben Youssef didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +13% PAN |
| 6 | 62' | Edgar Yoel Bárcenas Herrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% TUN |
| 7 | 65' | Wahbi Khazri scored from a shotFinishing · 76% chance | +9% TUN |
| 8 | 92' | Aníbal Cesis Godoy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% TUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panama 1% · draw 4% · Tunisia 95%
- Final margin
- Tunisia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Panama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tunisia by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Panama 7% · draw 13% · Tunisia 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tunisia win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2018
- Iran 1–1 Portugal Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Uruguay 3–0 Russia Jun 25, 2018 · replay 98% for Uruguay
- Spain 2–2 Morocco Jun 25, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Saudi Arabia 2–1 Egypt Jun 25, 2018 · replay 74% for Saudi Arabia
- Iceland 1–2 Croatia Jun 26, 2018 · replay 25% for Croatia
- Australia 0–2 Peru Jun 26, 2018 · replay 27% for Peru
- Nigeria 1–2 Argentina Jun 26, 2018 · replay 44% for Argentina
- Denmark 0–0 France Jun 26, 2018 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Serbia 0–2 Brazil Jun 27, 2018 · replay 71% for Brazil
- Switzerland 2–2 Costa Rica Jun 27, 2018 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–3 Sweden Jun 27, 2018 · replay 80% for Sweden
- South Korea 2–0 Germany Jun 27, 2018 · replay 39% for South Korea