Matchday 3 · World Cup 2018 · June 26, 2018
Australia 0–2 Peru: who deserved to win?
Peru beat Australia 2–0, but the replays lean toward Australia: 6 wins in 10 to Peru’s 1, 3 end level. Australia made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Australia | 0 | 1.63 |
 Peru | 2 | 0.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Peru very lucky · −73 Australia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Australia win 6, 3 end level, Peru win 1.
- 1 AUS 1 PER 0
- 2 AUS 1 PER 0
- 3 AUS 1 PER 0
- 4 AUS 2 PER 0
- 5 AUS 3 PER 1
- 6 AUS 3 PER 0
- 7 AUS 0 PER 0
- 8 AUS 1 PER 1
- 9 AUS 0 PER 0
- 10 AUS 1 PER 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Australia win 58%, 30% end level, Peru win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Peru by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Australia by 3+ | 10.3% |
| Australia by 2 | 18.0% |
| Australia by 1 | 29.3% |
| Draw | 29.9% |
| Peru by 1 | 9.7% |
| Peru by 2 | 2.4% |
| Peru by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Australia | 16 | 0 | 1.63 | −1.63 |
 Peru | 4 | 2 | 0.34 | +1.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | André Martín Carrillo Díaz scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 49' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Australia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | André Martín Carrillo Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +24% PER |
| 2 | 20' | Mathew Leckie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% PER |
| 3 | 26' | Tom Rogić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% PER |
| 4 | 34' | Trent Sainsbury didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% PER |
| 5 | 39' | Trent Sainsbury didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% PER |
| 6 | 49' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +12% PER |
| 7 | 58' | Mile Jedinak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% PER |
| 8 | 59' | Tim Cahill didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% PER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Australia 42% · draw 30% · Peru 28%
- Final margin
- Peru by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for Peru
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Australia by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Australia 58% · draw 30% · Peru 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Peru win 27% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2018 · Australia · Peru
More from matchday 3, 2018
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