Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 24, 2022
Brazil 2–0 Serbia: who deserved to win?
Brazil beat Serbia 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Brazil win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Brazil made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Brazil about even · −8 Serbia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Brazil win 9, 1 ends level, Serbia win 0.
- 1 BRA 1 SRB 0
- 2 BRA 1 SRB 0
- 3 BRA 2 SRB 0
- 4 BRA 2 SRB 0
- 5 BRA 2 SRB 0
- 6 BRA 3 SRB 0
- 7 BRA 3 SRB 0
- 8 BRA 4 SRB 0
- 9 BRA 5 SRB 0
- 10 BRA 1 SRB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Brazil win 86%, 12% end level, Serbia win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Brazil by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Brazil by 3+ | 37.8% |
| Brazil by 2 | 24.9% |
| Brazil by 1 | 23.7% |
| Draw | 11.7% |
| Serbia by 1 | 1.8% |
| Serbia by 2 | 0.1% |
| Serbia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 23 | 2 | 2.12 | −0.12 |
 Serbia | 5 | 0 | 0.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Raphael Dias Belloli didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 61' | Richarlison de Andrade scored from a shot | 0.57 |
| 72' | Richarlison de Andrade scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Brazil’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34' | Raphael Dias Belloli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SRB |
| 2 | 40' | Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SRB |
| 3 | 45' | Raphael Dias Belloli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +13% SRB |
| 4 | 54' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SRB |
| 5 | 61' | Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SRB |
| 6 | 61' | Richarlison de Andrade scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +15% BRA |
| 7 | 68' | Strahinja Pavlović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% BRA |
| 8 | 72' | Richarlison de Andrade scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +8% BRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Brazil 97% · draw 2% · Serbia 1%
- Final margin
- Brazil by 2
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Brazil by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Brazil 86% · draw 12% · Serbia 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Brazil win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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