Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 24, 2022
Portugal 3–2 Ghana: who deserved to win?
Portugal beat Ghana 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Portugal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Portugal made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Portugal about even · −19 Ghana
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portugal win 7, 2 end level, Ghana win 1.
- 1 POR 1 GHA 0
- 2 POR 2 GHA 1
- 3 POR 2 GHA 0
- 4 POR 2 GHA 0
- 5 POR 2 GHA 0
- 6 POR 3 GHA 0
- 7 POR 4 GHA 0
- 8 POR 0 GHA 0
- 9 POR 0 GHA 0
- 10 POR 0 GHA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Portugal win 72%, 18% end level, Ghana win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Portugal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portugal by 3+ | 24.7% |
| Portugal by 2 | 21.7% |
| Portugal by 1 | 25.7% |
| Draw | 18.2% |
| Ghana by 1 | 7.2% |
| Ghana by 2 | 1.8% |
| Ghana by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 11 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.10 | +0.90 |
 Ghana | 9 | 2 | 0.78 | +1.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 64' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 72' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 77' | João Félix Sequeira scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 79' | Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leão scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 88' | Osman Bukari scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Portugal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Rúben Diogo Da Silva Neves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GHA |
| 2 | 9' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +11% GHA |
| 3 | 12' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% GHA |
| 4 | 27' | João Félix Sequeira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GHA |
| 5 | 64' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% POR |
| 6 | 72' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +20% GHA |
| 7 | 77' | João Félix Sequeira scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +33% POR |
| 8 | 79' | Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leão scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portugal 74% · draw 18% · Ghana 8%
- Final margin
- Portugal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Ghana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Portugal by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Portugal 72% · draw 18% · Ghana 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Portugal win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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