Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 29, 2022
Iran 0–1 United States: who deserved to win?
United States beat Iran 1–0, and the replays lean United States’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Iran, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Iran | 0 | 0.92 |
 United States | 1 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 United States lucky · −39 Iran
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iran win 2, 3 end level, United States win 5.
- 1 IRN 1 USA 0
- 2 IRN 2 USA 0
- 3 IRN 1 USA 1
- 4 IRN 2 USA 2
- 5 IRN 1 USA 1
- 6 IRN 0 USA 3
- 7 IRN 0 USA 2
- 8 IRN 1 USA 3
- 9 IRN 1 USA 2
- 10 IRN 0 USA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Iran win 24%, 30% end level, United States win 47%. The line is what actually happened: United States by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iran by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Iran by 2 | 5.5% |
| Iran by 1 | 16.4% |
| Draw | 29.6% |
| United States by 1 | 25.1% |
| United States by 2 | 15.1% |
| United States by 3+ | 6.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran | 4 | 0 | 0.92 | −0.92 |
 United States | 12 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Christian Pulisic scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 51' | Saman Ghoddos didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 97' | Mehdi Taremi didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Iran’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Christian Pulisic didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% IRN |
| 2 | 27' | Timothy Weah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% IRN |
| 3 | 29' | Sergino Dest didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% IRN |
| 4 | 32' | Timothy Weah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% IRN |
| 5 | 37' | Christian Pulisic scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +14% USA |
| 6 | 51' | Saman Ghoddos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +13% USA |
| 7 | 92' | Morteza Pouraliganji didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% USA |
| 8 | 97' | Mehdi Taremi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +15% USA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iran 27% · draw 31% · United States 42%
- Final margin
- United States by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for United States
- Luck-adjusted margin
- United States by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Iran 24% · draw 30% · United States 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). United States win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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