Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 30, 2022
Australia 1–0 Denmark: who deserved to win?
Australia beat Denmark 1–0, but the replays lean toward Denmark: 4 wins in 10 to Australia’s 2, 4 end level. Denmark made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Australia lucky · −56 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Australia win 2, 4 end level, Denmark win 4.
- 1 AUS 1 DEN 0
- 2 AUS 2 DEN 0
- 3 AUS 0 DEN 0
- 4 AUS 0 DEN 0
- 5 AUS 0 DEN 0
- 6 AUS 0 DEN 0
- 7 AUS 0 DEN 2
- 8 AUS 1 DEN 2
- 9 AUS 0 DEN 1
- 10 AUS 0 DEN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Australia win 23%, 41% end level, Denmark win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Australia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Australia by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Australia by 2 | 3.9% |
| Australia by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 41.2% |
| Denmark by 1 | 25.2% |
| Denmark by 2 | 8.3% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Australia | 8 | 1 | 0.47 | +0.53 |
 Denmark | 14 | 0 | 0.74 | −0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 59' | Mathew Leckie scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Australia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Jesper Lindstrøm didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% AUS |
| 2 | 13' | Andreas Skov Olsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% AUS |
| 3 | 24' | Andreas Skov Olsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% AUS |
| 4 | 47' | Jackson Irvine didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% DEN |
| 5 | 59' | Mathew Leckie scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +31% AUS |
| 6 | 68' | Andreas Skov Olsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% AUS |
| 7 | 81' | Jesper Lindstrøm didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% AUS |
| 8 | 94' | Kasper Dolberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% AUS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Australia 25% · draw 39% · Denmark 36%
- Final margin
- Australia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Australia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Australia 23% · draw 41% · Denmark 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Australia win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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