Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 1, 2022
Japan 2–1 Spain: who deserved to win?
Japan beat Spain 2–1, and the replays lean Japan’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Spain, 3 end level. Japan made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Japan lucky · −42 Spain
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Japan win 4, 3 end level, Spain win 3.
- 1 JPN 1 ESP 0
- 2 JPN 3 ESP 2
- 3 JPN 2 ESP 0
- 4 JPN 3 ESP 0
- 5 JPN 1 ESP 1
- 6 JPN 1 ESP 1
- 7 JPN 0 ESP 0
- 8 JPN 0 ESP 2
- 9 JPN 0 ESP 1
- 10 JPN 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Japan win 43%, 28% end level, Spain win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Japan by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Japan by 3+ | 6.6% |
| Japan by 2 | 12.8% |
| Japan by 1 | 24.0% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Spain by 1 | 18.0% |
| Spain by 2 | 7.5% |
| Spain by 3+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Japan | 6 | 2 | 1.16 | +0.84 |
 Spain | 12 | 1 | 0.86 | +0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 47' | Ritsu Doan scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 50' | Ao Tanaka scored from a shot | 0.87 |
When it happened
Japan’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% JPN |
| 2 | 11' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +16% ESP |
| 3 | 22' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% JPN |
| 4 | 41' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% JPN |
| 5 | 47' | The game turned hereRitsu Doan scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +31% JPN |
| 6 | 50' | Ao Tanaka scored from a shotFinishing · 87% chance | +4% JPN |
| 7 | 84' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% JPN |
| 8 | 89' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% JPN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Japan 45% · draw 33% · Spain 22%
- Final margin
- Japan by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Japan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Japan by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Japan 43% · draw 28% · Spain 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Japan win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2022
- Iran 0–1 United States Nov 29, 2022 · replay 61% for United States
- Wales 0–3 England Nov 29, 2022 · replay 98% for England
- Netherlands 2–0 Qatar Nov 29, 2022 · replay 89% for Netherlands
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- Tunisia 1–0 France Nov 30, 2022 · replay 45% for Tunisia
- Australia 1–0 Denmark Nov 30, 2022 · replay 44% for Australia
- Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico Nov 30, 2022 · replay 84% for Mexico
- Poland 0–2 Argentina Nov 30, 2022 · replay 97% for Argentina
- Canada 1–2 Morocco Dec 1, 2022 · replay 39% for Morocco
- Croatia 0–0 Belgium Dec 1, 2022 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Costa Rica 2–4 Germany Dec 1, 2022 · replay 95% for Germany
- Serbia 2–3 Switzerland Dec 2, 2022 · replay 84% for Switzerland