luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 2, 2022

Serbia 2–3 Switzerland: who deserved to win?

Switzerland beat Serbia 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Switzerland win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Switzerland made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
Serbia 2 1.19
Switzerland 3 3.10

December 2, 2022 · Stadium 974 · Referee: Fernando Andrés Rapallini

Luck index +16 Switzerland about even · −16 Serbia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Serbia win 1, 1 ends level, Switzerland win 8.

  1. 1 SRB 2 SUI 1
  2. 2 SRB 0 SUI 0
  3. 3 SRB 1 SUI 7
  4. 4 SRB 2 SUI 6
  5. 5 SRB 0 SUI 4
  6. 6 SRB 0 SUI 3
  7. 7 SRB 0 SUI 2
  8. 8 SRB 0 SUI 2
  9. 9 SRB 0 SUI 1
  10. 10 SRB 1 SUI 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Serbia win 9%, 13% end level, Switzerland win 78%. The line is what actually happened: Switzerland by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Serbia by 3+1.1%
Serbia by 22.0%
Serbia by 16.3%
Draw12.5%
Switzerland by 116.3%
Switzerland by 220.5%
Switzerland by 3+41.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Serbia1221.19+0.81
Switzerland1433.10−0.10

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
0'Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shot0.35
10'Dušan Vlahović didn’t score from a shot0.52
19'Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot0.07
25'Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot0.06
29'Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shot0.39
34'Dušan Vlahović scored from a shot0.16
43'Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shot0.73
47'Remo Freuler scored from a shot0.15
56'Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shot0.66
88'Christian Fassnacht didn’t score from a shot0.32

When it happened

Serbia’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Serbia was ahead in it, below while Switzerland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 10' Dušan Vlahović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance +13% SUI
2 19' Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +24% SUI
3 25' Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +25% SRB
4 29' Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance +11% SRB
5 34' Dušan Vlahović scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +24% SRB
6 43' Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shotFinishing · 73% chance +8% SUI
7 47' Remo Freuler scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +27% SUI
8 56' Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance +9% SRB

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Serbia 7% · draw 12% · Switzerland 81%

Final margin
Switzerland by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for Serbia
Luck-adjusted margin
Switzerland by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Serbia 9% · draw 13% · Switzerland 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Switzerland win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 3 matches, 2022 · Serbia · Switzerland

More from matchday 3, 2022

Every match of matchday 3, 2022