Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 29, 2022
Wales 0–3 England: who deserved to win?
England beat Wales 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, England win 10 of 10. England made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 England about even · −2 Wales
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wales win 0, 0 end level, England win 10.
- 1 WAL 0 ENG 7
- 2 WAL 0 ENG 6
- 3 WAL 0 ENG 5
- 4 WAL 0 ENG 5
- 5 WAL 1 ENG 5
- 6 WAL 1 ENG 4
- 7 WAL 0 ENG 3
- 8 WAL 1 ENG 3
- 9 WAL 0 ENG 2
- 10 WAL 1 ENG 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Wales win 1%, 3% end level, England win 96%. The line is what actually happened: England by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wales by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Wales by 2 | 0.1% |
| Wales by 1 | 0.8% |
| Draw | 3.1% |
| England by 1 | 8.3% |
| England by 2 | 16.9% |
| England by 3+ | 70.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wales | 7 | 0 | 0.21 | −0.21 |
 England | 18 | 3 | 2.92 | +0.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Marcus Rashford scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 50' | Phil Foden scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 67' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 76' | Phil Foden didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
| 90' | John Stones didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
When it happened
Wales’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +7% WAL |
| 2 | 37' | Phil Foden didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WAL |
| 3 | 38' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WAL |
| 4 | 47' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% WAL |
| 5 | 49' | Marcus Rashford scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +30% ENG |
| 6 | 49' | Joe Allen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ENG |
| 7 | 50' | Phil Foden scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +8% ENG |
| 8 | 67' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% ENG |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wales 0% · draw 1% · England 99%
- Final margin
- England by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for England
- Luck-adjusted margin
- England by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Wales 1% · draw 3% · England 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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