luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 30, 2022

Tunisia 1–0 France: who deserved to win?

Tunisia beat France 1–0, but the replays lean toward France: 3 wins in 10 to Tunisia’s 2, 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.5).

Full time

GoalsxG
Tunisia 1 0.30
France 0 0.48

November 30, 2022 · Education City Stadium · Referee: Matthew Conger

Luck index +55 Tunisia lucky · −55 France

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tunisia win 2, 5 end level, France win 3.

  1. 1 TUN 1 FRA 0
  2. 2 TUN 1 FRA 0
  3. 3 TUN 0 FRA 0
  4. 4 TUN 0 FRA 0
  5. 5 TUN 0 FRA 0
  6. 6 TUN 0 FRA 0
  7. 7 TUN 0 FRA 0
  8. 8 TUN 0 FRA 2
  9. 9 TUN 0 FRA 1
  10. 10 TUN 0 FRA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Tunisia win 19%, 52% end level, France win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Tunisia by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Tunisia by 3+0.3%
Tunisia by 22.8%
Tunisia by 115.7%
Draw51.8%
France by 123.8%
France by 24.8%
France by 3+0.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Tunisia510.30+0.70
France1000.48−0.48

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
57'Wahbi Khazri scored from a shot0.16

When it happened

Tunisia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Tunisia was ahead in it, below while France was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 24' Kingsley Coman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% TUN
2 29' Anis Ben Slimane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% FRA
3 57' Wahbi Khazri scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +29% TUN
4 79' Axel Disasi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% TUN
5 81' Adrien Rabiot didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% TUN
6 84' Adrien Rabiot didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% TUN
7 89' Randal Kolo Muani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% TUN
8 92' Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance +3% TUN

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tunisia 20% · draw 50% · France 31%

Final margin
Tunisia by 1
Luck in goals
0.9 for Tunisia
Luck-adjusted margin
Tunisia by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Tunisia 19% · draw 52% · France 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tunisia win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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