Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 30, 2022
Poland 0–2 Argentina: who deserved to win?
Argentina beat Poland 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Argentina win 10 of 10. Argentina made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Argentina about even · −3 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Poland win 0, 0 end level, Argentina win 10.
- 1 POL 0 ARG 7
- 2 POL 0 ARG 5
- 3 POL 0 ARG 5
- 4 POL 0 ARG 4
- 5 POL 0 ARG 4
- 6 POL 2 ARG 5
- 7 POL 0 ARG 3
- 8 POL 1 ARG 3
- 9 POL 1 ARG 3
- 10 POL 0 ARG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Poland win 1%, 4% end level, Argentina win 95%. The line is what actually happened: Argentina by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Poland by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Poland by 2 | 0.1% |
| Poland by 1 | 0.7% |
| Draw | 4.3% |
| Argentina by 1 | 10.9% |
| Argentina by 2 | 18.3% |
| Argentina by 3+ | 65.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | −0.20 |
 Argentina | 24 (1 pen) | 2 | 3.08 | −1.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 42' | Rodrigo Javier De Paul didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 45' | Alexis Mac Allister scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 66' | Julián Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Poland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Kamil Glik didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ARG |
| 2 | 27' | Julián Álvarez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% POL |
| 3 | 35' | Julián Álvarez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% POL |
| 4 | 38' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +23% POL |
| 5 | 42' | Rodrigo Javier De Paul didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% POL |
| 6 | 45' | Alexis Mac Allister scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +28% ARG |
| 7 | 55' | Julián Álvarez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% POL |
| 8 | 66' | Julián Álvarez scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +10% ARG |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Poland 0% · draw 1% · Argentina 99%
- Final margin
- Argentina by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Poland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Argentina by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Poland 1% · draw 4% · Argentina 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Argentina win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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