Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 29, 2022
Ecuador 1–2 Senegal: who deserved to win?
Senegal beat Ecuador 2–1, and the replays lean Senegal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Ecuador, 2 end level. Senegal made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Senegal lucky · −29 Ecuador
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ecuador win 2, 2 end level, Senegal win 6.
- 1 ECU 2 SEN 1
- 2 ECU 3 SEN 1
- 3 ECU 0 SEN 0
- 4 ECU 1 SEN 1
- 5 ECU 0 SEN 4
- 6 ECU 0 SEN 3
- 7 ECU 0 SEN 2
- 8 ECU 1 SEN 2
- 9 ECU 0 SEN 1
- 10 ECU 0 SEN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Ecuador win 18%, 22% end level, Senegal win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Senegal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ecuador by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Ecuador by 2 | 4.7% |
| Ecuador by 1 | 12.0% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Senegal by 1 | 25.6% |
| Senegal by 2 | 18.8% |
| Senegal by 3+ | 15.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ecuador | 9 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
 Senegal | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.71 | +0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 43' | Ismaïla Sarr scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 66' | Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 69' | Kalidou Koulibaly scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Ecuador’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Idrissa Gana Gueye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% ECU |
| 2 | 7' | Boulaye Dia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% ECU |
| 3 | 43' | Ismaïla Sarr scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% SEN |
| 4 | 66' | Felix Eduardo Torres Caicedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% SEN |
| 5 | 66' | Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +15% ECU |
| 6 | 69' | Kalidou Koulibaly scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +30% SEN |
| 7 | 75' | Gonzalo Jordy Plata Jiménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SEN |
| 8 | 93' | Jackson Gabriel Porozo Vernaza didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% SEN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ecuador 16% · draw 27% · Senegal 57%
- Final margin
- Senegal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Senegal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senegal by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Ecuador 18% · draw 22% · Senegal 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Senegal win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2022
- Iran 0–1 United States Nov 29, 2022 · replay 61% for United States
- Wales 0–3 England Nov 29, 2022 · replay 98% for England
- Netherlands 2–0 Qatar Nov 29, 2022 · replay 89% for Netherlands
- Tunisia 1–0 France Nov 30, 2022 · replay 45% for Tunisia
- Australia 1–0 Denmark Nov 30, 2022 · replay 44% for Australia
- Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico Nov 30, 2022 · replay 84% for Mexico
- Poland 0–2 Argentina Nov 30, 2022 · replay 97% for Argentina
- Canada 1–2 Morocco Dec 1, 2022 · replay 39% for Morocco
- Croatia 0–0 Belgium Dec 1, 2022 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Japan 2–1 Spain Dec 1, 2022 · replay 58% for Japan
- Costa Rica 2–4 Germany Dec 1, 2022 · replay 95% for Germany
- Serbia 2–3 Switzerland Dec 2, 2022 · replay 84% for Switzerland