Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · November 30, 2022
Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico: who deserved to win?
Mexico beat Saudi Arabia 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Mexico win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Mexico made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Saudi Arabia | 1 | 1.08 |
 Mexico | 2 | 2.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Mexico about even · −16 Saudi Arabia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saudi Arabia win 1, 1 ends level, Mexico win 8.
- 1 KSA 1 MEX 0
- 2 KSA 3 MEX 3
- 3 KSA 1 MEX 6
- 4 KSA 0 MEX 4
- 5 KSA 0 MEX 3
- 6 KSA 0 MEX 3
- 7 KSA 0 MEX 2
- 8 KSA 0 MEX 2
- 9 KSA 0 MEX 1
- 10 KSA 0 MEX 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Saudi Arabia win 9%, 14% end level, Mexico win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Mexico by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Saudi Arabia by 2 | 2.0% |
| Saudi Arabia by 1 | 6.6% |
| Draw | 14.3% |
| Mexico by 1 | 19.5% |
| Mexico by 2 | 20.8% |
| Mexico by 3+ | 36.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saudi Arabia | 10 | 1 | 1.08 | −0.08 |
 Mexico | 26 | 2 | 2.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 26' | Orbelín Pineda Alvarado didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 46' | Henry Josué Martín Mex scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 51' | Luis Gerardo Chávez Magallón scored from a free kick | 0.02 |
| 94' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari scored from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +9% KSA |
| 2 | 26' | Orbelín Pineda Alvarado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% KSA |
| 3 | 35' | Jesús Daniel Gallardo Vasconcelos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% KSA |
| 4 | 40' | Orbelín Pineda Alvarado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% KSA |
| 5 | 46' | Henry Josué Martín Mex scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +22% MEX |
| 6 | 49' | Sultan Abdullah Salim Al Ghannam didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +7% MEX |
| 7 | 50' | Ali Al Hassan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MEX |
| 8 | 51' | Luis Gerardo Chávez Magallón scored from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance | +13% MEX |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saudi Arabia 13% · draw 20% · Mexico 67%
- Final margin
- Mexico by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Saudi Arabia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mexico by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Saudi Arabia 9% · draw 14% · Mexico 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Mexico win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2022
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