Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 1, 2022
Canada 1–2 Morocco: who deserved to win?
Morocco beat Canada 2–1, but the replays lean toward Canada: 4 wins in 10 to Morocco’s 2, 4 end level. Canada made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Canada.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Morocco very lucky · −61 Canada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canada win 4, 4 end level, Morocco win 2.
- 1 CAN 2 MAR 1
- 2 CAN 1 MAR 0
- 3 CAN 2 MAR 0
- 4 CAN 2 MAR 0
- 5 CAN 0 MAR 0
- 6 CAN 0 MAR 0
- 7 CAN 0 MAR 0
- 8 CAN 0 MAR 0
- 9 CAN 1 MAR 3
- 10 CAN 0 MAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Canada win 43%, 36% end level, Morocco win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Morocco by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canada by 3+ | 4.5% |
| Canada by 2 | 11.7% |
| Canada by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 36.0% |
| Morocco by 1 | 15.9% |
| Morocco by 2 | 4.4% |
| Morocco by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canada | 5 | 0 | 1.10 | −1.10 |
 Morocco | 7 | 2 | 0.43 | +1.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Hakim Ziyech scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 22' | Youssef En-Nesyri scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 70' | Alistair Johnston didn’t score from a shot | 0.64 |
When it happened
Canada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Hakim Ziyech scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +23% MAR |
| 2 | 14' | Tajon Buchanan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +7% MAR |
| 3 | 22' | Youssef En-Nesyri scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +14% MAR |
| 4 | 39' | Own goal by nan, for CanadaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +14% CAN |
| 5 | 47' | Youssef En-Nesyri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% CAN |
| 6 | 57' | Alphonso Davies didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MAR |
| 7 | 70' | Atiba Hutchinson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% MAR |
| 8 | 70' | Alistair Johnston didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +25% MAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canada 20% · draw 38% · Morocco 42%
- Final margin
- Morocco by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Morocco
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Canada 43% · draw 36% · Morocco 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Morocco win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2022
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- Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico Nov 30, 2022 · replay 84% for Mexico
- Poland 0–2 Argentina Nov 30, 2022 · replay 97% for Argentina
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