Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 1, 2022
Costa Rica 2–4 Germany: who deserved to win?
Germany beat Costa Rica 4–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Germany win 10 of 10. Germany made the better chances: 4.3 expected goals to 1.0. An own goal helped Costa Rica.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Costa Rica | 2 | 1.03 |
 Germany | 4 | 4.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Germany about even · −5 Costa Rica
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Costa Rica win 0, 0 end level, Germany win 10.
- 1 CRC 5 GER 13
- 2 CRC 0 GER 6
- 3 CRC 1 GER 7
- 4 CRC 0 GER 5
- 5 CRC 0 GER 4
- 6 CRC 0 GER 4
- 7 CRC 0 GER 3
- 8 CRC 0 GER 3
- 9 CRC 2 GER 4
- 10 CRC 1 GER 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Costa Rica win 3%, 5% end level, Germany win 93%. The line is what actually happened: Germany by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Costa Rica by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Costa Rica by 2 | 0.5% |
| Costa Rica by 1 | 1.9% |
| Draw | 4.5% |
| Germany by 1 | 9.2% |
| Germany by 2 | 14.0% |
| Germany by 3+ | 69.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Costa Rica | 7 | 1 | 1.03 | −0.03 |
 Germany | 31 | 4 | 4.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Serge Gnabry scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 57' | Yeltsin Ignacio Tejeda Valverde scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 61' | Antonio Rüdiger didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 72' | Kai Havertz scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 75' | Niclas Füllkrug didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 84' | Kai Havertz scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 88' | Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Costa Rica’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Serge Gnabry scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +22% GER |
| 2 | 57' | Yeltsin Ignacio Tejeda Valverde scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +18% CRC |
| 3 | 61' | Antonio Rüdiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +15% CRC |
| 4 | 69' | Juan Pablo Vargas Campos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% GER |
| 5 | 69' | Own goal by nan, for Costa RicaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +37% CRC |
| 6 | 72' | The game turned hereKai Havertz scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +21% GER |
| 7 | 75' | Niclas Füllkrug didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +15% CRC |
| 8 | 84' | Kai Havertz scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +32% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Costa Rica 1% · draw 2% · Germany 97%
- Final margin
- Germany by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Costa Rica
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 3.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Costa Rica 3% · draw 5% · Germany 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Germany win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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