Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 1, 2022
Croatia 0–0 Belgium: who deserved to win?
Croatia and Belgium drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Croatia win 1 of 10, Belgium 7, and 2 end level. Belgium made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Croatia lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Croatia win 1, 2 end level, Belgium win 7.
- 1 CRO 1 BEL 0
- 2 CRO 2 BEL 2
- 3 CRO 0 BEL 0
- 4 CRO 0 BEL 5
- 5 CRO 1 BEL 5
- 6 CRO 1 BEL 4
- 7 CRO 0 BEL 2
- 8 CRO 2 BEL 4
- 9 CRO 0 BEL 1
- 10 CRO 0 BEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 9%, 16% end level, Belgium win 75%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Croatia by 2 | 1.7% |
| Croatia by 1 | 6.8% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| Belgium by 1 | 22.4% |
| Belgium by 2 | 22.1% |
| Belgium by 3+ | 30.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 11 | 0 | 0.69 | −0.69 |
 Belgium | 16 | 0 | 2.38 | −2.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 86' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 89' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.57 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Dries Mertens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% CRO |
| 2 | 48' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% CRO |
| 3 | 53' | Marcelo Brozović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BEL |
| 4 | 59' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRO |
| 5 | 59' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% CRO |
| 6 | 61' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +11% CRO |
| 7 | 86' | Thomas Meunier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chanceRomelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +25% CRO |
| 8 | 89' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +28% CRO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Croatia 7% · draw 14% · Belgium 79%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Croatia 9% · draw 16% · Belgium 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
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