Matchday 3 · World Cup 2022 · December 2, 2022
Ghana 0–2 Uruguay: who deserved to win?
Uruguay beat Ghana 2–0, and the replays lean Uruguay’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Ghana, 2 end level. Uruguay made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Uruguay lucky · −37 Ghana
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ghana win 3, 2 end level, Uruguay win 5.
- 1 GHA 2 URU 1
- 2 GHA 1 URU 0
- 3 GHA 2 URU 0
- 4 GHA 2 URU 2
- 5 GHA 1 URU 1
- 6 GHA 0 URU 4
- 7 GHA 1 URU 3
- 8 GHA 2 URU 4
- 9 GHA 0 URU 1
- 10 GHA 1 URU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Ghana win 26%, 22% end level, Uruguay win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Uruguay by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ghana by 3+ | 3.5% |
| Ghana by 2 | 6.6% |
| Ghana by 1 | 15.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 23.1% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 16.1% |
| Uruguay by 3+ | 13.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ghana | 9 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.39 | −1.39 |
 Uruguay | 12 | 2 | 1.64 | +0.36 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 25' | Giorgian Daniel De Arrascaeta Benedetti scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 31' | Giorgian Daniel De Arrascaeta Benedetti scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Ghana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% URU |
| 2 | 20' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +20% URU |
| 3 | 22' | Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% GHA |
| 4 | 25' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% GHA |
| 5 | 25' | Giorgian Daniel De Arrascaeta Benedetti scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +8% URU |
| 6 | 31' | Giorgian Daniel De Arrascaeta Benedetti scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +13% URU |
| 7 | 45' | Osman Bukari didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% URU |
| 8 | 78' | Antoine Semenyo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% URU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ghana 10% · draw 18% · Uruguay 71%
- Final margin
- Uruguay by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Uruguay
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Uruguay by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Ghana 26% · draw 22% · Uruguay 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Uruguay win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2022
- Iran 0–1 United States Nov 29, 2022 · replay 61% for United States
- Wales 0–3 England Nov 29, 2022 · replay 98% for England
- Netherlands 2–0 Qatar Nov 29, 2022 · replay 89% for Netherlands
- Ecuador 1–2 Senegal Nov 29, 2022 · replay 71% for Senegal
- Tunisia 1–0 France Nov 30, 2022 · replay 45% for Tunisia
- Australia 1–0 Denmark Nov 30, 2022 · replay 44% for Australia
- Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico Nov 30, 2022 · replay 84% for Mexico
- Poland 0–2 Argentina Nov 30, 2022 · replay 97% for Argentina
- Canada 1–2 Morocco Dec 1, 2022 · replay 39% for Morocco
- Croatia 0–0 Belgium Dec 1, 2022 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Japan 2–1 Spain Dec 1, 2022 · replay 58% for Japan
- Costa Rica 2–4 Germany Dec 1, 2022 · replay 95% for Germany