Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 14, 2018
Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia: who deserved to win?
Russia beat Saudi Arabia 5–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Russia win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Russia made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Russia | 5 | 1.28 |
 Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Russia about even · −15 Saudi Arabia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Russia win 8, 2 end level, Saudi Arabia win 0.
- 1 RUS 1 KSA 0
- 2 RUS 2 KSA 1
- 3 RUS 2 KSA 1
- 4 RUS 2 KSA 0
- 5 RUS 2 KSA 0
- 6 RUS 3 KSA 1
- 7 RUS 3 KSA 0
- 8 RUS 4 KSA 0
- 9 RUS 0 KSA 0
- 10 RUS 2 KSA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Russia win 76%, 19% end level, Saudi Arabia win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Russia by 5.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Russia by 3+ | 22.0% |
| Russia by 2 | 23.6% |
| Russia by 1 | 30.0% |
| Draw | 19.5% |
| Saudi Arabia by 1 | 4.5% |
| Saudi Arabia by 2 | 0.4% |
| Saudi Arabia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russia | 14 | 5 | 1.28 | +3.72 |
 Saudi Arabia | 6 | 0 | 0.25 | −0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Yury Gazinskiy scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 42' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 70' | Artem Dzyuba scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 90' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 93' | Aleksandr Golovin scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
When it happened
Russia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Aleksandr Samedov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% KSA |
| 2 | 10' | Alan Dzagoev didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% KSA |
| 3 | 11' | Yury Gazinskiy scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +21% RUS |
| 4 | 21' | Mohammad Ibrahim Al Sahlawi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% RUS |
| 5 | 27' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% RUS |
| 6 | 30' | Yasir Gharsan Al Shahrani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RUS |
| 7 | 42' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +11% RUS |
| 8 | 70' | Artem Dzyuba scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +1% RUS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Russia 98% · draw 2% · Saudi Arabia 0%
- Final margin
- Russia by 5
- Luck in goals
- 3.0 for Russia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Russia by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Russia 76% · draw 19% · Saudi Arabia 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Russia win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2018 · Russia · Saudi Arabia
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