Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 18, 2018
Sweden 1–0 South Korea: who deserved to win?
Sweden beat South Korea 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sweden win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Sweden made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 1 | 2.02 |
 South Korea | 0 | 0.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Sweden about even · −15 South Korea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sweden win 8, 2 end level, South Korea win 0.
- 1 SWE 1 KOR 0
- 2 SWE 1 KOR 0
- 3 SWE 1 KOR 0
- 4 SWE 2 KOR 0
- 5 SWE 2 KOR 0
- 6 SWE 3 KOR 0
- 7 SWE 3 KOR 0
- 8 SWE 5 KOR 0
- 9 SWE 1 KOR 1
- 10 SWE 0 KOR 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sweden win 77%, 17% end level, South Korea win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Sweden by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sweden by 3+ | 28.2% |
| Sweden by 2 | 22.1% |
| Sweden by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 16.7% |
| South Korea by 1 | 5.3% |
| South Korea by 2 | 1.2% |
| South Korea by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 16 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.01 | −1.01 |
 South Korea | 5 | 0 | 0.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 64' | Andreas Granqvist scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Sweden’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +13% KOR |
| 2 | 28' | Andreas Granqvist didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% KOR |
| 3 | 28' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% KOR |
| 4 | 43' | Andreas Granqvist didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% KOR |
| 5 | 51' | Ja-Cheol Koo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SWE |
| 6 | 55' | Ola Toivonen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% KOR |
| 7 | 64' | Andreas Granqvist scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% SWE |
| 8 | 90' | Hee-Chan Hwang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% SWE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sweden 82% · draw 14% · South Korea 4%
- Final margin
- Sweden by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for South Korea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sweden by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Sweden 77% · draw 17% · South Korea 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sweden win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium