Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 15, 2018
Portugal 3–3 Spain: who deserved to win?
Portugal and Spain drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Portugal win 3 of 10, Spain 5, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.7).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Portugal about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portugal win 3, 2 end level, Spain win 5.
- 1 POR 1 ESP 0
- 2 POR 2 ESP 1
- 3 POR 3 ESP 0
- 4 POR 1 ESP 1
- 5 POR 2 ESP 2
- 6 POR 1 ESP 4
- 7 POR 0 ESP 2
- 8 POR 1 ESP 3
- 9 POR 1 ESP 2
- 10 POR 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Portugal win 35%, 24% end level, Spain win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portugal by 3+ | 5.8% |
| Portugal by 2 | 10.7% |
| Portugal by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Spain by 1 | 20.9% |
| Spain by 2 | 12.2% |
| Spain by 3+ | 7.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 10 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.43 | +1.57 |
 Spain | 12 | 3 | 1.66 | +1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 23' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 43' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 54' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.79 |
| 57' | José Ignacio Fernández Iglesias scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 87' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a free kick | 0.09 |
When it happened
Portugal’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% POR |
| 2 | 23' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +24% ESP |
| 3 | 43' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +28% POR |
| 4 | 54' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +7% ESP |
| 5 | 57' | José Ignacio Fernández Iglesias scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +33% ESP |
| 6 | 71' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% ESP |
| 7 | 87' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +44% POR |
| 8 | 91' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +9% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portugal 29% · draw 31% · Spain 41%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Portugal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Portugal 35% · draw 24% · Spain 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium