Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 16, 2018
Croatia 2–0 Nigeria: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat Nigeria 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Croatia win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.8. An own goal helped Croatia.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 2 | 1.69 |
 Nigeria | 0 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Croatia about even · −19 Nigeria
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Croatia win 7, 2 end level, Nigeria win 1.
- 1 CRO 1 NGA 0
- 2 CRO 3 NGA 2
- 3 CRO 1 NGA 0
- 4 CRO 3 NGA 1
- 5 CRO 3 NGA 1
- 6 CRO 3 NGA 0
- 7 CRO 4 NGA 0
- 8 CRO 2 NGA 2
- 9 CRO 1 NGA 1
- 10 CRO 1 NGA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 71%, 19% end level, Nigeria win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Croatia by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 24.5% |
| Croatia by 2 | 22.7% |
| Croatia by 1 | 23.9% |
| Draw | 19.2% |
| Nigeria by 1 | 7.5% |
| Nigeria by 2 | 1.9% |
| Nigeria by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.69 | −0.69 |
 Nigeria | 13 | 0 | 0.76 | −0.76 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Mario Mandžukić didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 70' | Luka Modrić scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NGA |
| 2 | 31' | Mario Mandžukić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% NGA |
| 3 | 31' | Own goal by nan, for CroatiaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% CRO |
| 4 | 33' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% CRO |
| 5 | 38' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% NGA |
| 6 | 45' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CRO |
| 7 | 58' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% CRO |
| 8 | 70' | Luka Modrić scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% CRO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Croatia 65% · draw 23% · Nigeria 12%
- Final margin
- Croatia by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Croatia by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Croatia 71% · draw 19% · Nigeria 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Croatia win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2018 · Croatia · Nigeria
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