Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 16, 2018
Peru 0–1 Denmark: who deserved to win?
Denmark beat Peru 1–0, but the replays lean toward Peru: 5 wins in 10 to Denmark’s 3, 2 end level. Peru made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Peru | 0 | 1.93 |
 Denmark | 1 | 1.12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Denmark very lucky · −62 Peru
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Peru win 5, 2 end level, Denmark win 3.
- 1 PER 2 DEN 1
- 2 PER 2 DEN 1
- 3 PER 2 DEN 0
- 4 PER 3 DEN 1
- 5 PER 4 DEN 1
- 6 PER 2 DEN 2
- 7 PER 2 DEN 2
- 8 PER 1 DEN 3
- 9 PER 1 DEN 2
- 10 PER 1 DEN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Peru win 51%, 23% end level, Denmark win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Denmark by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Peru by 3+ | 12.0% |
| Peru by 2 | 16.4% |
| Peru by 1 | 22.3% |
| Draw | 22.8% |
| Denmark by 1 | 15.5% |
| Denmark by 2 | 7.7% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Peru | 17 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.93 | −1.93 |
 Denmark | 11 | 1 | 1.12 | −0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Christian Alberto Cueva Bravo didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Yussuf Yurary Poulsen scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 85' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Peru’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45' | Christian Alberto Cueva Bravo didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +24% DEN |
| 2 | 46' | Yussuf Yurary Poulsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% PER |
| 3 | 58' | Yussuf Yurary Poulsen scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +26% DEN |
| 4 | 60' | Édison Michael Flores Peralta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% DEN |
| 5 | 63' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% DEN |
| 6 | 78' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% DEN |
| 7 | 83' | Jefferson Agustín Farfán Guadalupe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +8% DEN |
| 8 | 94' | José Paolo Guerrero Gonzáles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% DEN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Peru 57% · draw 24% · Denmark 19%
- Final margin
- Denmark by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Denmark
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Peru by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Peru 51% · draw 23% · Denmark 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Denmark win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2018 · Peru · Denmark
More from matchday 1, 2018
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- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
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- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
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