Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 15, 2018
Morocco 0–1 Iran: who deserved to win?
Iran beat Morocco 1–0, but the replays lean toward Morocco: 4 wins in 10 to Iran’s 3, 3 end level. Morocco made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Iran.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Iran lucky · −60 Morocco
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Morocco win 4, 3 end level, Iran win 3.
- 1 MAR 1 IRN 0
- 2 MAR 1 IRN 0
- 3 MAR 2 IRN 0
- 4 MAR 2 IRN 0
- 5 MAR 0 IRN 0
- 6 MAR 1 IRN 1
- 7 MAR 1 IRN 1
- 8 MAR 0 IRN 2
- 9 MAR 0 IRN 1
- 10 MAR 0 IRN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Morocco win 44%, 32% end level, Iran win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Iran by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Morocco by 3+ | 5.6% |
| Morocco by 2 | 13.1% |
| Morocco by 1 | 25.1% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Iran by 1 | 17.1% |
| Iran by 2 | 5.9% |
| Iran by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Morocco | 14 | 0 | 1.06 | −1.06 |
 Iran | 8 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Morocco’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Younès Belhanda didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% IRN |
| 2 | 24' | Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% MAR |
| 3 | 42' | Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% MAR |
| 4 | 42' | Alireza Jahanbakhsh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MAR |
| 5 | 48' | Amine Harit didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% IRN |
| 6 | 79' | Hakim Ziyech didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% IRN |
| 7 | 80' | Romain Saïss didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% IRN |
| 8 | 94' | Own goal by nan, for IranOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +47% IRN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Morocco 44% · draw 32% · Iran 24%
- Final margin
- Iran by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Iran
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Morocco by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Morocco 44% · draw 32% · Iran 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Iran win 40% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia Jun 17, 2018 · replay 84% for Serbia
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium