Matchday 1 · World Cup 2018 · June 17, 2018
Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia: who deserved to win?
Serbia beat Costa Rica 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Serbia win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Serbia made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Costa Rica | 0 | 0.60 |
 Serbia | 1 | 1.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Serbia about even · −16 Costa Rica
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Costa Rica win 1, 2 end level, Serbia win 7.
- 1 CRC 1 SRB 0
- 2 CRC 1 SRB 1
- 3 CRC 0 SRB 0
- 4 CRC 0 SRB 5
- 5 CRC 0 SRB 3
- 6 CRC 0 SRB 3
- 7 CRC 0 SRB 2
- 8 CRC 1 SRB 3
- 9 CRC 2 SRB 3
- 10 CRC 1 SRB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Costa Rica win 8%, 16% end level, Serbia win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Serbia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Costa Rica by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Costa Rica by 2 | 1.5% |
| Costa Rica by 1 | 6.3% |
| Draw | 16.0% |
| Serbia by 1 | 23.7% |
| Serbia by 2 | 22.8% |
| Serbia by 3+ | 29.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Costa Rica | 10 | 0 | 0.60 | −0.60 |
 Serbia | 12 | 1 | 1.99 | −0.99 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 55' | Aleksandar Kolarov scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 75' | Filip Kostić didn’t score from a shot | 0.89 |
When it happened
Costa Rica’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Giancarlo González Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SRB |
| 2 | 49' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +12% CRC |
| 3 | 53' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% CRC |
| 4 | 55' | Aleksandar Kolarov scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +33% SRB |
| 5 | 75' | Filip Kostić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 89% chance | +7% CRC |
| 6 | 78' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SRB |
| 7 | 92' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SRB |
| 8 | 94' | Bryan Ruiz González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% SRB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Costa Rica 7% · draw 16% · Serbia 78%
- Final margin
- Serbia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Costa Rica
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Serbia by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Costa Rica 8% · draw 16% · Serbia 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Serbia win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2018
- Russia 5–0 Saudi Arabia Jun 14, 2018 · replay 85% for Russia
- Egypt 0–1 Uruguay Jun 15, 2018 · replay 84% for Uruguay
- Portugal 3–3 Spain Jun 15, 2018 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Morocco 0–1 Iran Jun 15, 2018 · replay 40% for Iran
- Argentina 1–1 Iceland Jun 16, 2018 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Croatia 2–0 Nigeria Jun 16, 2018 · replay 81% for Croatia
- France 2–1 Australia Jun 16, 2018 · replay 69% for France
- Peru 0–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2018 · replay 38% for Denmark
- Germany 0–1 Mexico Jun 17, 2018 · replay 31% for Mexico
- Brazil 1–1 Switzerland Jun 17, 2018 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sweden 1–0 South Korea Jun 18, 2018 · replay 85% for Sweden
- Belgium 3–0 Panama Jun 18, 2018 · replay 74% for Belgium